"They act like we are discardable widgets" - Understanding the Massive Devaluation of NFL Running Backs
The NFL RB market is absolute pandemonium, and fans are starting to wonder - could this be the end of the position?
It wasn’t too long ago that running back was the new hot position in the NFL, at least when it came to money.
In 2018, Todd Gurley inked a market resetting extension for 4 years and $57.5M. You can read more about Todd Gurley in my recent piece about him:
Not to be outdone, Ezekiel Elliott held out in 2019 in order to gain a 6 year, $90M extension with Dallas. In 2020, Christian McCaffrey became the highest paid RB in history with a 4 year, $64M contract. Derrick Henry hopped on the train for 4 years and $50M, and Dalvin Cook cashed in for 5 years and $63M.
Yet, today’s NFL tells a different story — Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs are now rather ineffectively holding out to avoid the dreaded franchise tag — which would only grant them $10.1M over 1 year, with no long-term security against injury.
What caused this rapid devaluation, and what is going to happen next?
The Numbers
Taking a look at the outcomes of the earlier mentioned contracts provides some insight. Todd Gurley was released by the Rams in 2019 after playing just one year on his new contract, and both Dalvin Cook and Ezekiel Elliott were released this offseason. The cost? The Rams were charged over $20M in cap space from 2020-21, and the Vikings & Cowboys are on the hook for over $5M each in dead cap during the upcoming season.
Additionally, even the RBs who don’t get released are suffering consequences — Joe Mixon and Aaron Jones both received pay cuts in order to avoid ending up as free agents.
So what’s really happening here? Well, there is (probably) no conspiracy by the NFL to cut RBs out of their fair share, but rather an important discovery in the NFL — running backs are easily replaceable.
Many teams are finding value in cheaper running backs with a longer shelf life— Cook and Elliott were phased out by Alexander Mattison and Tony Pollard, both of whom have 2 years less of wear and tear. Pollard was able to outpace Elliott on the ground 1007 yards to Zeke’s 807, even more impressive considering Pollard had 40 fewer carries on the year. Although Mattison didn’t have quite as much production as his senior counterpart, he proved to be a reliable red zone threat, raking in 5 TDs on the ground. Rather importantly, Mattison is on a very team friendly 2 year, $7M contract, and Tony Pollard has signed a franchise tag worth $10.1M.
Increasingly, NFL organizations are finding quality backs in the draft—without needing to use a Day 1 pick. In 2022, 8 rookies logged a yards per carry that was above the league average of 4.5 ypc, and only one of them was a first round pick (Travis Etienne).
The average cap charge of these young RBs is just $1.34M.
Because of the NFL CBA negotiated in 2011, rookies entering the league are placed on a contract based on a wage scale, which provides a general value for a rookie’s contract based on their position and where they were picked in the draft. Importantly, all rookie contracts are 4 years long, cannot be renegotiated, and are not able to be extended until after the player’s third season.
The problem becomes apparent when you look at the reality of the running back position: RBs take up considerable damage between high school, college, and the early years of their pro career. By the time they are eligible for a huge payday, they most likely only have 1-3 years of quality running before succumbing to injury. The destructive nature of the RB position causes them to fall through the gaps of the NFL system. It doesn’t make much financial sense for teams to commit to a large, long-term contract for a player that doesn’t have much left in them. Instead, front offices opt for either franchise tags or 1-2 year deals with little guaranteed money, leaving running backs with little to no insurance against injury.
Matt Miller succinctly explained the new strategy of NFL front offices:
You don’t have to be a math genius to realize that large, lengthy contracts for running backs don’t make much sense. How could any NFL front office justify paying $13-16M per year for a RB when they could easily get 80% of the value—plus more quality seasons out of the player—for a tenth of the cost?
From the RB’s Point of View
Obviously, top NFL running backs differ on this mindset taken up by NFL teams.
Austin Ekeler, well known for his leadership in the NFLPA, is spearheading the fight against the new anti-RB NFL. On July 23, Ekeler organized a Zoom meeting with top NFL RBs—including Nick Chubb, Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey, and more—in order to discuss the dire state of the market. According to Mike Florio, the idea of “exaggerating or fabricating injuries” while in the midst of a contract dispute was discussed.
Ekeler recently agreed to a contract with the Chargers with a base salary of just $6.25M, plus $1.35M added in incentives. However, the 28 year old vet was clearly frustrated with his situation, stating that “seeing backup WRs make more than me pisses me off” [via Rich Eisen Show].
However, not everyone even has a contract this year.
Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs are both making headlines in the NFL world by holding out, and are reportedly willing to sit on the sidelines throughout all of training camp, preseason, and even into the regular season.
"My leverage is, I could say ‘F--k you’ to the Giants, I could say ‘F--k you' to my teammates and be like, ‘You want me to show you my worth? You want me to show you how valuable I am to the team? I won’t show up. I won’t play a down.”
- Saquon Barkley on the Money Matters podcast
And while most NFL fans are cheering for the two likable stars to get paid, it seems like they have little to no leverage, contrary to what Barkley says.
At this point in the season, Barkley and Jacobs are only allowed to sign 1 year deals with their respective teams. This gives the Giants and Raiders no reason to offer any significant increase from the franchise tag already on the table, as they couldn’t offer a long-term deal if they wanted to. Additionally, even if both RBs choose to hold out into the regular season, as stated above, their organizations do not need to shell out tens of millions of dollars in order to gain running back production. They could easily trade a late round pick for a cheap, solid RB, or fall back on a running back by committee system using their depth. According to most voices in the league, a lengthy hold out would only hurt the market value of Jacobs and Barkley, and run down more time on the already very short clock of an NFL RB’s career.
The chiefs just won the super bowl with a rookie 7th round RB. Shut up ekeler. 25 years ago it was hard to win without a top tier RB. The patriots had 1 pro bowl RB since 2000. I think they did okay.